elections and how they could be applied against the November 2020 election and beyond. Next, we consider the use of influence operations and the interference with the 2016 U.S. Then it examines how active measures and disinformation have been used against partners in Europe. It first examines historical Russian objectives with the West and the use of active measures against western populations and interests including disinformation campaigns. This article is organized into several areas. 10The problem being considered in this paper is how Russia might weaponize effects from COVID-19 against the United States and its Western partners during the period leading up to the November 2020 presidential election as well as beyond in its longstanding campaign to undermine the legitimacy of democratic government. 9Both China and Russia have used the pandemic to further their own national goals including sending medical aid to Italy but the shipments seem to have been for geopolitical gain rather than for altruistic reasons. 8Iran and Russia state-sponsored media have pushed conspiracy theories about the United States and SARS-CoV-19 and has included criticism of the Trump Administration’s response. In the past, countries like Russia have exploited similar crisis, using them against the United States, including the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1980s. COVID-19 has widened the gap between the United States and its competitors. 7Concurrently, competitive relationships also did not yield to cooperation against the virus. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor in the Bush Administration, stated that the international community did not respond to COVID-19 crisis instead individual countries responded on their own with no cooperation or coordination. In April 2020, Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. 6This could mean that interference with the election has not been fully documented by one of the cabinet departments charged with detecting and reporting it. 5In a whistleblower complaint, the official alleged that beginning in May 2020, he was instructed to suppress intelligence on Russian interference with the election process.
Department of Homeland Security Acting Under Secretary for Intelligence & Analysis was removed from office. Recently, Russian social media postings have reportedly been detected containing misinformation intended to influence voting. It was intended as a guide to potential Russian interference and its objectives. This article was prepared in the spring of 2020 in advance of the period leading up to the November 2020 United States election and beyond. Many aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the response to it have been politicized with Republicans and Democrats divided on the national response, virus lethality, and even the efficacy of wearing a mask. Racial divides and socioeconomic inequalities have been emphasized alongside issues that include urban versus rural communities, resort towns and second-home owners, and essential workers and those working from home. 2Concurrently, COVID-19 has highlighted or exacerbated national divisions along many of society’s fault lines. 1The virus has depressed economic activity and unemployment claims have reached a level not seen since the Great Depression. The October numbers had reached 1 million deaths and over 37 million infected. Worldwide, in late-May over 350,000 had died and more than 3.7 million infected. By mid-October 2020, deaths had increased to over 210,000 and nearly 8,000,000 have been infected. In late-May 2020, the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its related illness COVID-19, had resulted in the deaths of more than 100,000 Americans and infected nearly 1.7 million. We conclude with a set of recommendations to counter malign foreign influence. The article includes the scenarios of such weaponization, including the description of focal points that may be attacked. Possible coronavirus effects are inventoried and categorized into economic, healthcare, and environmental issue areas that may be leveraged and weaponized.
The problem being considered is the potential for Russian malign foreign influence to exploit the divides exacerbated by the coronavirus and target the United States and its European allies during the period leading to the 2020 elections and beyond. The effects have highlighted longstanding societal divisions, disproportionately harming minority groups and the socioeconomically disadvantaged with Black Americans and their communities hit especially hard. The effects of the novel coronavirus and its related disease COVID-19 have been far reaching, touching American society and its Western partners’ health and mortality, economics, social relationships, and politics.
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